When Does Evidence Suffice for Conviction?

There is something puzzling about statistical evidence. One place this manifests is in the law, where courts are reluctant to base affirmative verdicts on evidence that is purely statistical, in spite of the fact that it is perfectly capable of meeting the standards of proof enshrined in legal doctrine. After surveying some proposed explanations for this, I shall outline a new approach – one that makes use of a notion of normalcy that is distinct from the idea of statistical frequency. The puzzle is not, however, merely a legal one. Our unwillingness to base beliefs on statistical evidence is by no means limited to the courtroom, and is at odds with almost every general principle that epistemologists have proposed as to how we ought to manage our beliefs

A novel high-throughput screen for identifying lipids that stabilise membrane proteins in detergent based solution

Membrane proteins have a range of crucial biological functions and are the target of about 60% of all prescribed drugs. For most studies, they need to be extracted out of the lipid-bilayer, e.g. by detergent solubilisation, leading to the loss of native lipids, which may disturb important protein-lipid/bilayer interactions and thus functional and structural integrity. Relipidation of membrane proteins has proven extremely successful for studying challenging targets, but the identification of suitable lipids can be expensive and laborious. Therefore, we developed a screen to aid the high-throughput identification of beneficial lipids. The screen covers a large lipid space and was designed to be suitable for a range of stability assessment methods. Here, we demonstrate its use as a tool for identifying stabilising lipids for three membrane proteins: a bacterial pyrophosphatase (Tm-PPase), a fungal purine transporter (UapA) and a human GPCR (A(2A)R). A(2A)R is stabilised by cholesteryl hemisuccinate, a lipid well known to stabilise GPCRs, validating the approach. Additionally, our screen also identified a range of new lipids which stabilised our test proteins, providing a starting point for further investigation and demonstrating its value as a novel tool for membrane protein research. The pre-dispensed screen will be made commercially available to the scientific community in future and has a number of potential applications in the field.Peer reviewe

Modelling the near-IR spectra of Jupiter using line-by-line methods

We have obtained long-slit, infrared spectra of Jupiter with the Anglo Australian Telescope in the K and H bands at a resolving power of 2260. Using a line-by-line, radiative transfer model with the latest, improved spectral line data for methane and ammonia, we derive a model of the zonal characteristics in the atmosphere of this giant planet. We fit our model to the spectra of the zones and belts visible at 2.1 {\mu}m using different distributions of cloud opacities. The modeled spectra for each region match observations remarkably well at K band and in low pressure regions at the H band. Our results for the upper deck cloud distribution are consistent with previous models (Banfield et al.1998) fitted to low resolution, grism spectra. The ability to obtain and model high resolution planetary spectra in order to search for weakly absorbing atmospheric constituents can provide better constraints on the chemical composition of planetary atmospheres.Comment: Accepted by MNRAS on the 7th February 201

The globular cluster NGC 2419: a crucible for theories of gravity

We present the analysis of a kinematic data set of stars in the globular cluster NGC 2419, taken with Keck/DEIMOS. Combined with a reanalysis of deep HST and Subaru imaging data, which provide an accurate luminosity profile of the cluster, we investigate the validity of a large set of dynamical models of the system, which are checked for stability via N-body simulations. We find that isotropic models in either Newtonian or Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND) are ruled out with extremely high confidence. However, a simple Michie model in Newtonian gravity with anisotropic velocity dispersion provides an excellent representation of the luminosity profile and kinematics. In contrast, with MOND we find that Michie models that reproduce the luminosity profile either over-predict the velocity dispersion on the outskirts of the cluster if the mass to light ratio is kept at astrophysically-motivated values, or else they under-predict the central velocity dispersion if the mass to light ratio is taken to be very small. We find that the best Michie model in MOND is a factor of 10000 less likely than the Newtonian model that best fits the system. A likelihood ratio of 350 is found when we investigate more general models by solving the Jeans equation with a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo scheme. We verified with N-body simulations that these results are not significantly different when the MOND external field effect is accounted for. If the assumptions that the cluster is in dynamical equilibrium, spherical, not on a peculiar orbit, and possesses a single dynamical tracer population of constant M/L are correct, we conclude that the present observations provide a very severe challenge for MOND. [abridged]Comment: 25 pages, 19 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Tidal Signatures in the Faintest Milky Way Satellites: The Detailed Properties of Leo V, Pisces II and Canes Venatici II

We present deep wide-field photometry of three recently discovered faint Milky Way satellites: Leo V, Pisces II, and Canes Venatici II. Our main goals are to study the structure and star formation history of these dwarfs; we also search for signs of tidal disturbance. The three satellites have similar half-light radii ($\sim 60-90$ pc) but a wide range of ellipticities. Both Leo V and CVn II show hints of stream-like overdensities at large radii. An analysis of the satellite color-magnitude diagrams shows that all three objects are old ($>$ 10 Gyr) and metal-poor ([Fe/H] $\sim -2$), though neither the models nor the data have sufficient precision to assess when the satellites formed with respect to cosmic reionization. The lack of an observed younger stellar population (\la 10 Gyr) possibly sets them apart from the other satellites at Galactocentric distances \ga 150 kpc. We present a new compilation of structural data for all Milky Way satellite galaxies and use it to compare the properties of classical dwarfs to the ultra-faints. The ellipticity distribution of the two groups is consistent at the $\sim$2-$\sigma$ level. However, the faintest satellites tend to be more aligned toward the Galactic center, and those satellites with the highest ellipticity (\ga 0.4) have orientations ($\Delta \theta_{GC}$) in the range $20^{\circ} \lesssim \Delta \theta_{GC} \lesssim 40^{\circ}$. This latter observation is in rough agreement with predictions from simulations of dwarf galaxies that have lost a significant fraction of their dark matter halos and are being tidally stripped.Comment: 25 pages, 7 figures, ApJ accepted; version updated to match ApJ accepte

From Galaxy Clusters to Ultra-Faint Dwarf Spheroidals: A Fundamental Curve Connecting Dispersion-supported Galaxies to Their Dark Matter Halos

We examine scaling relations of dispersion-supported galaxies over more than eight orders of magnitude in luminosity by transforming standard fundamental plane parameters into a space of mass (M1/2), radius (r1/2), and luminosity (L1/2). We find that from ultra-faint dwarf spheroidals to giant cluster spheroids, dispersion-supported galaxies scatter about a one-dimensional "fundamental curve" through this MRL space. The weakness of the M1/2-L1/2 slope on the faint end may imply that potential well depth limits galaxy formation in small galaxies, while the stronger dependence on L1/2 on the bright end suggests that baryonic physics limits galaxy formation in massive galaxies. The mass-radius projection of this curve can be compared to median dark matter halo mass profiles of LCDM halos in order to construct a virial mass-luminosity relationship (Mvir-L) for galaxies that spans seven orders of magnitude in Mvir. Independent of any global abundance or clustering information, we find that (spheroidal) galaxy formation needs to be most efficient in halos of Mvir ~ 10^12 Msun and to become inefficient above and below this scale. Moreover, this profile matching technique is most accurate at the high and low luminosity extremes (where dark matter fractions are highest) and is therefore quite complementary to statistical approaches that rely on having a well-sampled luminosity function. We also consider the significance and utility of the scatter about this relation, and find that in the dSph regime observational errors are almost at the point where we can explore the intrinsic scatter in the luminosity-virial mass relation. Finally, we note that purely stellar systems like Globular Clusters and Ultra Compact Dwarfs do not follow the fundamental curve relation. This allows them to be easily distinguished from dark-matter dominated dSph galaxies in MRL space. (abridged)Comment: 27 pages, 18 figures, ApJ accepted. High-res movies of 3D figures are available at http://www.physics.uci.edu/~bullock/fcurve/movies.htm

Stealth Galaxies in the Halo of the Milky Way

We predict that there is a population of low-luminosity dwarf galaxies orbiting within the halo of the Milky Way that have surface brightnesses low enough to have escaped detection in star-count surveys. The overall count of stealth galaxies is sensitive to the presence (or lack) of a low-mass threshold in galaxy formation. These systems have luminosities and stellar velocity dispersions that are similar to those of known ultrafaint dwarf galaxies but they have more extended stellar distributions (half light radii greater than about 100 pc) because they inhabit dark subhalos that are slightly less massive than their higher surface brightness counterparts. As a result, the typical peak surface brightness is fainter than 30 mag per square arcsec. One implication is that the inferred common mass scale for Milky Way dwarfs may be an artifact of selection bias. If there is no sharp threshold in galaxy formation at low halo mass, then ultrafaint galaxies like Segue 1 represent the high-mass, early forming tail of a much larger population of objects that could number in the hundreds and have typical peak circular velocities of about 8 km/s and masses within 300 pc of about 5 million solar masses. Alternatively, if we impose a low-mass threshold in galaxy formation in order to explain the unexpectedly high densities of the ultrafaint dwarfs, then we expect only a handful of stealth galaxies in the halo of the Milky Way. A complete census of these objects will require deeper sky surveys, 30m-class follow-up telescopes, and more refined methods to identify extended, self-bound groupings of stars in the halo.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, accepted by ApJ. Several crucial references added and the discussion has been expanded. Conclusions are unchanged

The population of variable stars in M54 (NGC6715)

We present new B, V and I CCD time-series photometry for 177 variable stars in a 13'X 13' field centered on the globular cluster M54 (lying at the center of the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy), 94 of which are newly identified variables. The total sample is composed of 2 anomalous Cepheids, 144 RR Lyrae stars (108 RR0 and 36 RR1), 3 SX Phoenicis, 7 eclipsing binaries (5 W UMA and 2 Algol binaries), 3 variables of uncertain classification and 18 long-period variables. The large majority of the RR Lyrae variables likely belong to M54. Ephemerides are provided for all the observed short-period variables. The pulsational properties of the M54 RR Lyrae variables are close to those of Oosterhoff I clusters, but a significant number of long-period ab type RR Lyrae are present. We use the observed properties of the RR Lyrae to estimate the reddening and the distance modulus of M54, E(B-V)=0.16 +/- 0.02 and (m-M)_0=17.13 +/- 0.11, respectively, in excellent agreement with the most recent estimates. The metallicity has been estimated for a subset of 47 RR Lyrae stars, with especially good quality light curves, from the Fourier parameters of the V light curve. The derived metallicity distribution has a symmetric bell shape, with a mean of =-1.65 and a standard deviation sigma=0.16 dex. Seven stars have been identified as likely belonging to the Sagittarius galaxy, based on their too high or too low metallicity. This evidence, if confirmed, might suggest that old stars in this galaxy span a wide range of metallicities.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication by MNRA

SMASH 1 : A VERY FAINT GLOBULAR CLUSTER DISRUPTING in the OUTER REACHES of the LMC?

We present the discovery of a very faint stellar system, SMASH 1, that is potentially a satellite of the Large Magellanic Cloud. Found within the Survey of the Magellanic Stellar History (SMASH), SMASH 1 is a compact (rh=9.1-3.4+5.9pc) and very low luminosity (Mv=-1.0±0.9,Lv=102.3±0.4L⊙ ) stellar system that is revealed by its sparsely populated main sequence and a handful of red giant branch candidate member stars. The photometric properties of these stars are compatible with a metal-poor ([Fe/H]=-2.2) and old (13 Gyr) isochrone located at a distance modulus of ∼18.8, i.e., a distance of . Situated at 11.°3 from the LMC in projection, its three-dimensional distance from the Cloud is 13 kpc, consistent with a connection to the LMC, whose tidal radius is at least . Although the nature of SMASH 1 remains uncertain, its compactness favors it being a stellar cluster and hence dark-matter free. If this is the case, its dynamical tidal radius is only ≲19 pc at this distance from the LMC, and smaller than the system's extent on the sky. Its low luminosity and apparent high ellipticity (ϵ=0.62-0.21+0.17) with its major axis pointing toward the LMC may well be the tell-tale sign of its imminent tidal demise.Peer reviewe

A comparison between the stellar and dynamical masses of six globular clusters

We present the results of a comprehensive analysis of the structure and kinematics of six Galactic globular clusters. By comparing the results of the most extensive photometric and kinematical surveys available to date with suited dynamical models, we determine the stellar and dynamical masses of these stellar systems taking into account for the effect of mass segregation, anisotropy and unresolved binaries. We show that the stellar masses of these clusters are on average smaller than those predicted by canonical integrated stellar evolution models because of the shallower slope of their mass functions. The derived stellar masses are found to be also systematically smaller than the dynamical masses by ~40%, although the presence of systematics affecting our estimates cannot be excluded. If confirmed, this evidence can be linked to an increased fraction of retained dark remnants or to the presence of a modest amount of dark matter.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication by Ap